The T+1 journey is far from over

Article
Article
5 min read
Date
15 April 2025
Author
Marc Bayle de Jessé
Chief Executive Officer
Publication

In May 2024, the US and Canadian securities markets successfully moved to a T+1 settlement cycle. This significant change in market infrastructure has highlighted the need to harmonize settlement cycles globally and has resulted in plans to implement T+1 initiatives in Europe, the UK, Switzerland and Lichtenstein in October 2027. 

The shift to T+1 in the American securities space impacts the wider foreign exchange (FX) ecosystem because approximately 20% of securities and 17% of equites are held outside the US.[1] Due to time zone differences, European and Asian investors and asset managers have much less time to mobilize currency to fund a US or Canadian securities trade if it settles on a T+1 basis. As a result, it was feared that requiring these securities trades to settle the following day could force investors to execute and settle an FX trade on a same-day (T+0) basis to secure the necessary funding. In other words, there was concern that a shift to T+1 for securities settlement could push FX to T+0, at least for some parts of the FX market.

CLS analyzed its transaction data to assess the potential impact of the shorter settlement cycle on CLSSettlement and engaged extensively with the industry before the May 2024 transition. Based on this analysis, it was expected that only around 1% of CLSSettlement’s average daily settlement value of approximately USD7 trillion could potentially be impacted by the transition, representing business that may be linked to non-US investment funds trading in US securities. However, CLS’s post-transition analysis found no negative impact of the T+1 transition on CLS’s business. In fact, CLSSettlement average daily settlement values (ADV) actually increased, from USD7.0 trillion to USD7.6 trillion. The data indicates that both buy and sell sides adjusted their arrangements ahead of the move where needed.

Looking ahead to Europe’s move to T+1, there is less concern regarding its impact on FX settlement.  Custodians’ cut-off times in EU and UK time zones better align with CLS’s timeline, which largely overlaps with the business day in the EU and UK (with CLS funding and settlement taking place between 07:00 CET and 12:00 CET). CLS has estimated that the percentage of CLSSettlement ADV that could potentially be impacted by the move should not exceed 0.4% in the EU and 0.1% in the UK.

“Collaboration between public and private sectors is key for FX market stability during Europe’s T+1 transition.”

CLS will support the FX industry during Europe’s T+1 transition through ongoing collaboration with its settlement members and other public and private sector entities in the broader FX ecosystem. Currently, CLS is co-leading the EU’s T+1 Working Group FX workstream, an initiative set up by the European Securities and Markets Authority, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank to support the transition to T+1 in the European Union.

Beyond T+1, it is not clear whether T+0 should be the next logical step. While same-day settlement is currently still a niche market in FX, the market is already beginning to consider the implications of shorter settlement cycles. For example, CLS research in partnership with FNA indicated that conducting multiple daily settlement cycles in CLSSettlement could allow a substantial amount of the same-day market (estimated at around USD500 billion) to benefit from FX settlement risk mitigation, liquidity optimization and operational efficiencies.

With partnerships across the public and private sectors, CLSSettlement will continue to provide the stability, risk mitigation and efficiency necessary for the smooth functioning of the FX market and the wider financial ecosystem.

First published in Eurofi magazine, April 2025.

[1] Department of US Treasury, “Foreign Portfolio Holding of US Securities,” 30 June 2023

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